Experience Study Output
ProVal displays the output whenever it executes an Experience Study. (The results of a previously saved Experience Study are displayed by clicking the View button in the Experience Study dialog box.) ProVal generates a list of parameters of the Experience Studies Library entry, the processing messages and reports for all the selected assumptions. Reports are grouped and subtotaled according to the selections under the Report Breakpoints topic, as demonstrated by this sample of the first rows of a termination probability report that is grouped by age, service and sex:
| Sex | Service | Near Age | Exposed | Actual Terminations | Expected Terminations | Actual q's | Expected q's | Ratio: Actual over Expected |
|
Male |
<1 |
<20 |
0
|
0
|
0.00 |
0.0 |
0.000000 |
0.000 |
All reports have columns for life counts (exposed, actual and expected decrements), q’s (actual and expected probabilities, or ratio of number of actual and expected decrements, respectively, to number exposed), and the ratio of actual to expected q’s. Only eligible lives are considered exposed to the retirement decrement, but all lives included in the study for the year are considered exposed to other decrements. The actual decrements column shows the number of lives, based on eligibility and change in status, who actually decremented (because of that life contingency) during the year. The expected decrements column shows the number of lives expected to decrement according to the decrement q’s in the Valuation Assumptions under study. Because entries in the expected decrements column are rounded to two decimal places, the expected q’s may appear not to be exactly equal to the ratio of expected decrements to exposure. (Note: if your active decrements are coded as rates, rather than probabilities, under the Decrements topic of Valuation Assumptions, then the columns of expected decrements and q’s are adjusted to reflect the interaction of decrements in a multi-decrement environment.)
In the columns of the salary growth report, life counts are replaced by salaries (beginning-of-year total salaries, and the actual and expected total salaries at the end of the year) and q’s are replaced by increases. If any salaries require more than 9 digits to display properly, ProVal will round the salaries to the nearest thousand (for display only, not for calculations) and the heading of this report will be annotated “(Salaries shown in 1,000s)”.
If you select (under the Active Data and/or Inactive Data topics) a head count weight, then the values in each record’s weight field are totaled, instead of life counts.
Totals of exposure and actual decrements are aggregate results for all years in the study. To isolate totals for each year, perform a separate study for each year.
Results are computed and shown for all age groupings within a service group and then for all service groups within a sex category. If separate male and female results are shown, you may also choose to show total results. Age and service are computed at each valuation date as described in the Report Breakpoints topic.
If the number exposed for a particular age/service/sex group is zero, then the group’s counts of actual and expected decrements/salaries are set to zero. To avoid a possible distortion, you should exclude these groups from any statistical analysis performed on the results of your study.
When the reports are displayed on the screen, you may omit the list of parameters and/or processing messages or select fewer reports (or no reports, to display only parameters or processing messages). Just click the Customize button and complete the parameters:
Select reports lists all reports for the selected assumptions. (See the Report Breakpoints topic for the list of available reports for each assumption.)
Select subtotals, accessible if you have indicated a subtotal field under the Report Breakpoints topic, lists the categories of the selected coded field, if any.
List library entry allows you to list the parameters of your Experience Study.
Display processing messages generates a list of any actions taken during validation, such as exclusion of some records from some years of the Experience Study.
Page break after each table is used to print reports on separate pages.
When the reports are displayed, you may also plot actual and expected probabilities (or actual and expected salary increases) by clicking the Graph button. ProVal will plot all your reports. You can save graphing execution time, as well as memory, by selecting fewer reports.