The Stochastic Forecast Output command allows you to review the results of one or more Stochastic Forecasts.

To view output:

1. On the Output menu, select Stochastic Forecast Output. Alternatively, select Stochastic Forecasts in the Shortcuts pane.

2. Select the Stochastic Forecasts you want to view. (To select more than one, hold down the Shift or Ctrl key while clicking.)

3. Select Results to be displayed and specify Formatting options in the Output pane, or load a Saved style from the library. See below for details.

4. Click the View Output button. Upon viewing, you can Print or save to File, among other options. Note: a blank value displayed for a variable indicates that its value has not been calculated during the selected run.

 

The items in the Output pane are as follows:

Saved style is the name of the stochastic forecast output design template that is currently in use. Click the arrow button to manage or select from the library of design templates. Note that the color of the arrow turns to red if output design changes have been made and have not yet been saved. To save changes to an existing style, click the arrow button and Replace; to save a new style, give it a name, click the arrow button and then click “Save as new”. To clear style settings, click the arrow button and then click “Clear settings”. Note that when "Clear settings" is applied to a loaded style, the saved style itself remains intact and can be reloaded. 

Click Variables to select the output to be displayed for each of the Stochastic Forecasts selected. You can select all variables by clicking the All button; clicking the None button removes all selections. Custom Stochastic Variables can be selected by clicking the Custom Variables button.

Click Years to specify the years to display for the selected forecasts. ProVal's default is to display all available years.

Click Percentiles to specify stochastic percentiles for which output should be displayed. You can choose output from the 0th through the 100th percentile (by 5s), as well as the mean and the standard deviation.

The results for each output item are stored independently by percentile. Accordingly, the 95th percentile contribution, which represents the contribution amount that, in that year, was higher than 95% of all of the contribution amounts generated, is probably not from the same trial that generated that year’s 95th percentile (or 5th percentile) asset return.

Check the Display trial numbers rather than values box to see which stochastic trial numbers produced the selected percentile values. A trial number can be used to facilitate further investigation – to populate a set of Deterministic Assumptions, to view calculation details in Stochastic Trial Exhibits or to reference individual trial results if Trial Detail is captured. If more than one trial produces a given result, the lowest trial number will be displayed. For example, if in the year 2011, 312 out of 1,000 trials have a contribution rate of zero, and the lowest trial number with a zero contribution rate is trial 12, then the 0th through the 30th percentiles will display trial number 12. Trial number 1 will be displayed for all variables that are not actually stochastic. Blank trial numbers will be displayed for the mean and standard deviation and for forecasts run prior to ProVal version 2.28.

Click Mixes to specify the asset mixes for which output should be displayed. ProVal's default is to display all Mixes.

Click Layout to specify how the output is to be arranged. Typical arrangements for stochastic forecasts include:

• Comparing different asset mixes within one Stochastic Forecast, or several Stochastic Forecasts each with a single mix, over time, where Years are in rows and Stochastic Forecasts are in columns; and

• Comparing percentiles of one or more variables across asset mixes for a specified year, where Percentiles are in rows and Stochastic Forecasts are in columns.

However, you can organize the data differently if you wish.

Click Format variables to reorder the listing of the variables selected, and change the name of each variable from the one that ProVal uses. You can also set the numeric format for each variable (i.e., the number of decimal digits and whether commas are to be used).

Click Format stochastic forecasts if you wish to rename or reorder the forecasts selected for display. ProVal uses the forecast name as a Default Title, but you can override that default by entering a Custom Title for one or more of the selected forecasts. By default, the display sequence of the selected forecasts is determined by the sorting you apply to the forecasts in the entries pane (e.g., by Name or by date Modified), in combination with the sequence of selected Asset Mixes in the stochastic assumptions for each forecast. Clicking Custom order will enable you to renumber the stochastic forecasts to indicate the order in which they are to appear; ProVal will retain the specified order as long as Custom order remains selected, regardless of whether you resort the forecast listing in the entries pane.

Click Page title to specify a title other than "Stochastic Forecast Output".

Click the View Output button to view the results, after which you can Print or save to File, among other options. Note: a blank value displayed for a variable indicates that its value has not been calculated during the selected run.

 

Under See also, in the bottom right-hand corner of the screen, you can also:

Click Stochastic Trial Exhibits… to open the Stochastic Trial Exhibits command.