Projection Assumptions
The parameters of the Projection Assumptions command tell ProVal how to determine demographic experience and how to relate future changes in valuation interest rates to valuation increase rate assumptions. Additionally, in all pension modes, there are Projection Assumptions parameters to reflect plan amendments that affect benefit liabilities and to relate future changes in valuation interest rates to valuation lump sum interest rates for lump sum factor Benefit Formula Components (if any). ProVal applies these experience assumptions from the baseline valuation date (entered as the Valuation Date parameter value of the Core Projection) until each future forecast valuation date; the Valuation Assumptions are applied at the baseline and forecast valuation dates to perform each valuation and determine liability values for benefits paid at future decrement dates.
It is useful to run a Core Projection with experience assumptions that are the same as the valuation assumptions, so that you may check the reasonableness of results and spot possible coding errors or misconceptions. If your Projection Assumptions are identical to your Valuation Assumptions for parameters they have in common and you apply no interest rate sensitivities, then the absence of experience gains and losses over the projection period would confirm that, very likely, the results are "good". To facilitate this, you may populate your Projection Assumptions directly from a set of Valuation Assumptions, by clicking the Populate button, which is discussed below. (Note: in the pension modes, because the payment frequency options, which indicate the timing of expected benefit payments, do not include “annual, middle of year”, which is the assumed timing of actual, aka experience, benefit payments over the projection period, it is possible to see small gains or losses despite Projection Assumptions that are identical to the Valuation Assumptions.)
However, experience assumptions and valuation assumptions need not be the same. In fact, another useful aspect of a projection is to study the implications of experience deviating from assumptions. Such deviations, of course, generate actuarial gains and losses, which, in turn, will affect annual plan costs, funded ratios and other results. As an example, you might assume for computing plan liabilities that the merit component of salary increases is 3% each year but that, for experience, merit increases in salary are actually only 2%.
Note that information about the assets is added at the forecast stage, via the Asset & Funding Policy.
ProVal runs “baseline” core and, if you have selected sensitivity dimensions, sensitivity cores, whose results are interpolated in a subsequent Deterministic Forecast or Stochastic Forecast. For more information about the forecast stage, see Interpolation of a Core Projection's results.
The Projection Assumptions dialog box includes the following parameters:
Name is a descriptive phrase to use when saving this set of Projection Assumptions.
Select a topic to edit contains entries for each category of information (topic) found under the Projection Assumptions command. In large part, these categories parallel those entered for the corresponding Valuation Assumptions, allowing you to specify projection assumptions that are the same as or differ from your valuation assumptions.
There are two groups of topics under the Projection Assumptions command, divided according to whether the topic(s) refer to future demographic experience assumptions (with respect to plan provisions and census data as of each forecast valuation date) or to sensitivity to future valuation interest rate assumptions used at the various forecast valuation dates. How the parameters of the experience assumption topics affect plan benefit payments or census data is explained in the discussion of the respective topic. Under the (single) valuation assumption topic, you may vary the valuation interest rates to be lower or higher than their values on the baseline valuation date and specify, when those interest rates are lower or higher, the valuation assumption values of salary inflation, increase and crediting rates and lump sum factor interest rates. This is also explained in the discussion of the respective topic. Thus, under the Valuation Assumption Sensitivities topic, you may tie sensitivity changes in valuation interest rates to assumed values of these other valuation assumptions in the actuarial valuation at each forecast valuation date.
Click the name of a topic to access its parameters.
Future Experience Assumptions – heading is for descriptive purposes only; click indented subtopic name.
Increase & Crediting Rates (pension modes) or Increase Rates (OPEB mode)
Lump Sum & Optional Payment Forms (pension modes only)
Election Probabilities (pension modes) or Election & Lapse Probabilities (OPEB mode)
Plan Amendments (pension modes except German)
Future Valuation Assumptions – heading is for descriptive purposes only; click indented subtopic name.
You may specify Projection Assumptions that are the same as the corresponding valuation assumptions by copying directly from the Valuation Assumptions set into your Projection Assumptions set. To do so, click the Populate button and complete the parameters it accesses. (Alternatively, you may use this button to copy from any other Valuation Assumptions set in the current Project.)