Experience Study Output
ProVal displays the output whenever it executes an Experience Study. (The results of a previously saved Experience Study are displayed by clicking the View button in the Experience Study dialog box.) ProVal generates a list of parameters of the Experience Studies Library entry, the processing messages and reports for all the selected assumptions. Reports are grouped and subtotaled according to the selections under the Report Breakpoints topic, as demonstrated by this sample of the first rows of a termination probability report that is grouped by age:
Headcount Weighted: Salary | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Near Age |
Exposed | Actual Terminations |
Expected Terminations |
Actual q's |
Expected q's |
Ratio: Actual over Expected |
Exposed | Actual Terminations |
Expected Terminations |
Actual q's |
Expected q's |
Ratio: Actual over Expected |
<20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000 |
20-24 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.000000 | 0.130795 | 0.000 | 98,224.36 | 0.00 | 14,460.31 | 0.000000 | 0.147217 | 0.000 |
25-29 | 101.00 | 6.00 | 9.59 | 0.059406 | 0.094983 | 0.625 | 2,687,003.73 | 141,896.67 | 249,456.70 | 0.052809 | 0.092838 | 0.569 |
30-34 | 191.00 | 1.00 | 13.52 | 0.005236 | 0.070779 | 0.074 | 6,997,395.00 | 20,326.16 | 486,702.89 | 0.002905 | 0.069555 | 0.042 |
35-39 | 321.00 | 2.00 | 11.82 | 0.006231 | 0.036819 | 0.169 | 15,247,423.39 | 65,466.85 | 534,416.39 | 0.004294 | 0.035050 | 0.123 |
40-44 | 256.00 | 4.00 | 4.04 | 0.015625 | 0.015794 | 0.989 | 14,901,620.51 | 487,376.51 | 225,899.51 | 0.032706 | 0.015159 | 2.157 |
45-49 | 183.00 | 5.00 | 1.64 | 0.027322 | 0.008954 | 3.051 | 11,234,444.72 | 358,070.36 | 98,274.89 | 0.031873 | 0.008748 | 3.644 |
50-54 | 141.00 | 2.00 | 0.17 | 0.014184 | 0.001225 | 11.579 | 9,110,198.97 | 91,395.34 | 8,783.46 | 0.010032 | 0.000964 | 10.405 |
55-59 | 14.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000 | 972,798.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000 |
60-64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000 |
65+ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000 |
<Total> | 1,210.00 | 20.00 | 41.18 | 0.016529 | 0.034031 | 0.486 | 61,249,109.36 | 1,164,531.89 | 1,617,994.13 | 0.019013 | 0.026417 | 0.720 |
All reports have columns for life counts (exposed, actual and expected decrements), q’s (actual and expected probabilities, or ratio of number of actual and expected decrements, respectively, to number exposed), and the ratio of actual to expected q’s. Only eligible lives are considered exposed to the retirement decrement, but all lives included in the study for the year are considered exposed to other decrements. The actual decrements column shows the number of lives, based on eligibility and change in status, who actually decremented (because of that life contingency) during the year. The expected decrements column shows the number of lives expected to decrement according to the decrement q’s in the Valuation Assumptions under study. Because entries in the expected decrements column are rounded to two decimal places, the expected q’s may appear not to be exactly equal to the ratio of expected decrements to exposure. (Note: if your active decrements are coded as rates, rather than probabilities, under the Decrements topic of Valuation Assumptions, then the columns of expected decrements and q’s are adjusted to reflect the interaction of decrements in a multi-decrement environment.)
In the columns of the salary growth report, life counts are replaced by salaries (beginning-of-year total salaries, and the actual and expected total salaries at the end of the year) and q’s are replaced by increases. If any salaries require more than 9 digits to display properly, ProVal will round the salaries to the nearest thousand (for display only, not for calculations) and the heading of this report will be annotated “(Salaries shown in 1,000s)”.
If you select (under the Active Data and/or Inactive Data topics) a head count weight, then the values in each record’s weight field are totaled and also shown on the right side of the table.
Results are computed and shown for all age groupings within a service group and then for all service groups within a sex category. If separate male and female results are shown, you may also choose to show total results. Age and service are computed at each valuation date as described in the Report Breakpoints topic.
If the number exposed for a particular age/service/sex group is zero, then the group’s counts of actual and expected decrements/salaries are set to zero. To avoid a possible distortion, you should exclude these groups from any statistical analysis performed on the results of your study.
When the reports are displayed, you may also plot actual and expected probabilities (or actual and expected salary increases) by clicking the Graph button.