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Lapse Probability Tables

Lapse probabilities reflect the likelihood of a participant stopping coverage of a particular benefit after decrement. The probability is assumed to be 1 at decrement and the specified probability is applied each year after decrement. 

The Benefit Definition dialog box contains a check box parameter that asks whether lapse probabilities apply. Checking this box will prompt a question in Valuation Assumptions, where the applicable probabilities are to be specified. See also Benefit Definitions - OPEB mode, which discuss use of lapse probabilities, and the Lapse Probabilities topic of Valuation Assumptions.

The probabilities may be constant (i.e., all participants have the same probability of retaining this benefit) or may vary by age, duration from decrement, and/or sex. Varying lapse probabilities are entered in a table with an interface that permits variation by age, duration from decrement and/or sex.

ProVal looks up table values based on the participant’s age, as defined by the date of birth (or attained age) for both active and inactive participants, and date of decrement defined for inactive participants using the date of decrement (or decrement age) parameter in Census Specifications. Age for table lookups is always computed as integer (not fractional) numbers. For details, see Active Data, and Inactive Data - OPEB mode.

In a Core Projection, Projection Assumptions may specify lapse probabilities during the experience period in a similar manner.