Asset Mixes
You enter portfolio mixes for the stochastic forecast by selecting the Asset Mixes topic in the Economic Experience field.
You can select mixes from the Efficient Frontier by clicking the Efficient Frontier... button and/or you can enter the asset mix percentages directly by providing a Description and specifying a fraction (between -9 and 9 inclusive, to allow for the possibility of leverage) for each asset class in the selected Capital Market Simulation. All the asset classes specified in the capital market simulation are candidates for an allocation percentage and are automatically listed as columns in the Asset mixes spreadsheet field. The final column in the spreadsheet is a Total column to facilitate entering an asset allocation that totals 1 (i.e., 100%). Mix #s are automatically provided. The asset mixes are numbered consecutively. Mix numbers are mainly used with the Dynamic asset allocation features described below. Press the Sort by expected return button to rearrange the mixes so that they are in ascending expected return order. Reordering gives some meaning to the mix number in that lower mix numbers tend to be more conservative than higher mix numbers.
You may enter an unlimited number of alternative asset mixes in the spreadsheet. One way to add additional asset mix rows to the spreadsheet is to right-click on the spreadsheet and select “Insert Row Below Alt+Ins” from the menu.
During a stochastic forecast, asset mix returns can be calculated by ProVal or specified by selecting Override calculated expected return for each asset mix. If ProVal is calculating the returns, the calculation is based on either continuous or annual rebalancing. If you select Calculate asset mix return using: Annual rebalancing, returns will be calculated using an arithmetic average, essentially the sum of the weighted expected return for each asset class. For example, if 30% of the portfolio is in an asset class with an 8% return and the other 70% has a 5% return, the annual rebalancing arithmetic average total return is calculated as is (30% * 8%)+(70% * 5%) = 5.9%. For Continuous rebalancing, returns will be calculated using a geometric average. In our same example, the continuous rebalancing geometric average is [(1.080.3)(1.050.7)-1]=5.89%. The arithmetic average return will always be greater than the geometric average return. If returns are calculated on a continuous rebalancing basis, it can be shown that the allocation amongst asset classes will be the same at every point in time during the year. This is not the case for the arithmetic average basis where classes with better returns will become a greater portion of the asset mix over the course of the year. Only geometric returns (Continuous rebalancing) will produce long term compound nominal returns that are comparable to the expected return that one would hand calculate for the asset mix: a weighted average of the expected return for each asset class where the weight is the allocation to that class.
For leveraged asset mixes (where some asset allocations are less than zero), asset and income returns are forced to be greater than negative one and turnover is forced to be between zero and one.
Check the Dynamic asset allocation based on: box to choose an asset mix each year in accordance with a decision rule. Three dynamic allocation structures are available. Asset allocation may vary by stochastic trial if the decision rule is a function of economic factors such as the plan's funded ratio and/or interest rates. The third option is to vary asset allocation by year. The decision rule is then defined by entering mix numbers into a spreadsheet.The Allow re-risking checkbox and the ability to delay the dynamic asset allocation are available for Dynamic asset allocation based on: either Funded ratio or Funded ratio and interest rates.
If Allow Re-risking is not checked, the historically highest funded ratio for each stochastic trial will be used for table lookup purposes. If the checkbox is checked, the current funded ratio will be used.
Dynamic asset allocation may be delayed by checking the During a deferral period of x year(s), use asset mix # y checkbox. After checking the box, enter the deferral period and the Mix # to be used during the deferral period.