Election probabilities are conditional probabilities utilized in situations where an additional condition, besides eligibility and decrement caused by the contingency initiating the benefit, must be met at the time of decrement to receive a particular benefit. That is, receipt of the benefit is not certain, even after a participant becomes eligible and decrements from the appropriate cause. In some cases, this is because several alternative benefits are available.  

The Election Probabilities topic lists all Benefit Definitions that exist in the current Project (or were previously defined for a Valuation referencing either this Valuation Assumption set or a set from which it was copied by “saving as new”) and with which election probabilities are to be associated, i.e., those Benefit Definitions for which the box entitled “Election probabilities apply” has been checked (in Input | Plan Benefit Definitions | Benefit Definitions). The probability, if any, that has already been associated with the benefit, whether a constant value, a table or “none” (discussed below), is displayed next to the name of the Benefit Definition. To specify Election Probabilities, select the desired benefits, click the Edit button, and complete the parameters in the next dialog box. 

In the pension modes (except U.K.), the For joint life optional payment forms parameter pertains to joint life annuity Types of payment forms specified by the Optional forms parameter of a Benefit Definition.  You may assume either that the marital assumption fractions are applied to value benefits paid on a joint and survivor payment form or that those fractions are 1 (that is, 100% of the population is assumed married and, in modes other than Canadian registered pension and German pension, 100% is assumed to elect the joint and survivor form), by selecting either the Joint life if married; corresponding life annuity if single option or the Joint life for all participants option, respectively. (Note: if the normal payment form is a joint life annuity, the marital assumption fractions always are applied to determine its present value.) Thus under the Joint life if married; corresponding life annuity if single option, the election probabilities also take into consideration the fraction of the population that is married and, except in Canadian and German modes, electing the joint and survivor form. For example, consider a U.S. qualified plan in which a life annuity normal payment form is assigned an election probability of 60% and an optional joint life payment form is assigned an election probability of 40%. If Joint life for all participants is selected, the 60% will be applied to the life annuity payment form and 40% to the joint life payment form. If Joint life if married; corresponding life annuity if single is selected and 80% are assumed married (and 100% of married participants are assumed to elect the joint and survivor form), then 32% (40% x 80) will be assumed to receive the joint life payment form and 68% will be assumed to receive the life annuity.

If you wish, you may select a Plan Filter (in German mode, a Promise Filter), from the dropdown list, to reduce the list of possible choices to those Benefit Definitions associated with a particular Plan Definition (or in German mode a particular Benefit Promise). Please see Filters for details.

Election probabilities must be defined for each Payment Form Definition referenced by the Benefit Definition, that is, the Normal form and each Optional form associated with the Benefit Definition. The normal payment form is always listed, in the first row of the grid at the top of the dialog box, and labeled as such; if the Benefit Definition includes optional payment forms, they will also be listed (below the normal form) and labeled as such. You may select different entries (whether a constant value or a table selection, discussed below) for the normal payment form and each optional payment form.

There are three options for specifying the values of the associated election Probabilities:

1. Select the Constant option to apply the same conditional probability of benefit receipt for all active records meeting the eligibility requirements and decrementing from the appropriate cause (that is, there is no variation by age, service and sex). For each Payment Form listed above, enter a constant value in the Probabilities column. Enter each probability as a number between zero and 1 (not as a percentage). Instead of a single constant value for a payment form, you can specify that election probabilities Also vary by the contents of a coded database field or by calendar year of decrement (the relevant parameters are discussed below).

2. Select the Table option to specify probabilities defined by tables that vary by age, service and / or sex. For each Payment Form listed above, select from the list of Election Probability Reference Tables that have been saved and unhidden in the current Project or click the button (to the right of the Probabilities column) to create a new table. Instead of a single table for a payment form, you can specify that election probabilities Also vary by the contents of a coded database field or by calendar year of decrement (the relevant parameters are discussed below).

3. Select None (i.e., probability of receipt of normal payment form is 1) to assign an election probability, or conditional probability, of 1 to the normal payment form (and a probability of receipt of 0 to each optional payment form), that is, the benefit is payable under the normal payment form and there is no additional condition to meet, or everyone who is eligible receives the benefit upon decrement from active status. If you select this option, the Payment Form and Probabilities columns above become inaccessible (as no further specification is needed). This option is useful when a benefit has been defined to accommodate election probabilities, but no election probabilities are to be reflected in this particular assumption set.

To indicate that the election probabilities Also vary by the contents of a coded field on the database, that is, different constant values or tables should be used for different groups of records, identified by values of a coded database field (e.g., Division), check the Coded database field box and then select the field from the list of all coded fields unhidden in the current Project. A Code column now appears in the grid above: for each code value, there is a row in the grid for the normal payment form and for each optional payment form. For each combination of code and payment form, enter the numeric value (if the Constant option is selected above for Probabilities) or select the desired election probability table library entry (if the Table option is selected above for Probabilities).

To indicate that the election probabilities Also vary by calendar year of decrement (i.e., the calendar year of the anniversary of the valuation date in the year of decrement), check the Calendar years box and enter (in the text box below) for all constant or tabular election probabilities that you will specify, the first calendar year to be associated with a particular constant value or table. For example, if the election probabilities will be 0.25 through 2008, 0.2 for 2009, 0.15 for 2010, 0.1 for 2011, 0.05 from 2012 through 2014 inclusive and 0.25 in 2015 and later years, then enter “2009 - 2012, 2015” in the text box. Two columns, From and To, now appear in the grid above, and rows appear according to the “breakdown by year” indicated by the text box entries. In our example, rows appear for years through 2008, for 2009, for 2010, for 2011, for years 2012 through 2014 and for years 2015 and later, so that you may enter the constant value associated with each set of years. There are rows in the grid for the normal payment form and for each optional payment form. For each combination of years and payment form, enter the numeric value (if the Constant option is selected above for Probabilities) or select the desired election probability table library entry (if the Table option is selected above for Probabilities).

To indicate that the election probabilities Also vary by both a coded field on the database and the calendar year of decrement, combine the instructions in the two paragraphs above; the grid above will populate with both the Database Code column and the From/To columns. Specify the desired constant or table probability for each combination of code value and decrement year.

The Table service based on parameter is used to define service for look up if the table has a service dimension. The preset option, “<rounded attained age – rounded hire age>” indicates that service will be computed as the difference between rounded attained age (as of the decrement date) and rounded hire age. (See also the discussion of the date of hire (or hire age) parameter under the Active Data topic of the Census Specifications command.) Alternatively, Table service may be based on a database Field; select from the list of database fields in the current Project. You may refer to a date field from which to measure service or to a numeric field containing service as of the valuation date. Note that selecting, by name, the date of hire field of the Active Data topic of the Census Specifications might not produce the same result as the preset option. This is a consequence of the fact that if a database field is selected, truncated service based on the field is used. That is, if you select the date of hire field by name, ProVal subtracts the hire date from the decrement date and then truncates. The result may be lookup service of one year more or less than lookup service computed as the difference between rounded ages at the valuation date and at hire. For more information about table lookups, see the discussion of table interface. To use fractional service attribution (e.g., hours-related service) or rounding (e.g., completed years), select from the library of Service Definitions. The button accesses the library to create and modify Service Definitions. (See also the discussion of Service Definitions and attribution in the Technical Reference article entitled "PUC and UC attribution".)

Note that for any benefits commencing at post-termination retirement age, the applicable election probabilities will be based upon age at retirement, not termination.  In this case, all references to "decrement" in this section refer to the retirement decrement.